Linked Fates – “Occupy” and the Climate Negotiations

Anyone who claims that the fate of the climate talks is bound to the fate of the Occupy movement better expect a bit of skepticism in return. Now, if it were Occupy and the Climate Justice movement, that would be a different story! Both are complex social movements, and both are driving hard for economic justice. Their overlap is inevitable. But the negotiations themselves? What have they to do with economic justice? What have they to do with the great divide between “the 1%” and “the 99%”?

It’s an easy question to ask. Too easy, actually. It’s a question that raises others…

Beyond vague talk about “the most vulnerable countries and people,” few of us are really prepared to approach the climate crisis as a justice problem. So it should be said that it didn’t have to be this way. If justice had long been a major part of environmental politics, we’d be in better shape today. But it hasn’t been, not until recently, and the truth is that Big Green still isn’t really on board with justice environmentalism. In fact, it’s fair to say that today’s progressive enviros are the inheritors of a long tradition, and that it’s not a uniformly admirable one. The climate politics mainline, in particular, has long focused, almost exclusively, on the technical side of the transition problem. Not that there’s any hope without a technology revolution, but must it come packaged with a refusal to understand, let alone confront, the economic divide that’s at the core of the global climate-policy deadlock?

Things are changing now, or at least they could. But the past matters.

Remember Copenhagen? Remember the vitriol of the blame game that followed Copenhagen? Do try, because soon we’re going to see what, if anything, we’ve learned in the two years since that great debacle. As I write this, Durban, South Africa (the next Conference of Parties to the Climate Convention) is coming right up, and it will almost certainly join Copenhagen on the long list of grim, poorly-reported failures to make the international breakthrough that we so badly need. As Durban approaches, and then passes, we’re all going to have to decide what the hell we think is actually going on.

Important things will happen in Durban, but they’ll not alone set the tone of the next year. That role will be reserved for the economy, and the US election, and – for the aficionados among us – the early drafts of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment report. In the meantime, beware China bashing, which was the preferred mode of rationalization after Copenhagen, at least in the North (see Mark Lynas’ genre milestone here) and it could easily return again. To see the danger, glance at Joe Romm’s recent report of China’s booming emissions. This boom, and how it’s reported and understood, will weigh more on the overall prospect than the minutia of the negotiations. Not that I’m specifically criticizing Romm, but the fact is that, as a community, we’re unprepared to understand China’s trajectory, or its implications. So he can says that “Chinese CO2 Emissions Now Exceed U.S.’s By 50%,” and the numbers seem to speak for themselves.

They don’t actually, but they seem to.

And, most likely, they seem to say that the climate negotiations no longer even matter. That the Chinese economy is beyond all control. And that, with the other “big emitters” (e.g. India) straining to follow along on the same path, we’re basically toast. That the only real hope of containing the emissions of the “emerging economies” is energy-system revolution – technology, again, as the savior. That “soft” concerns like “equity” – it would be better to be precise and say something like “economic justice in a climate constrained world,” but never mind that for now – have little if anything to contribute.

The “climate realists” (as they fancy themselves) encourage such views, for realism-as-we-know-it sees only power, national interest, and merciless competition dynamics that leave little room for negotiated political restraint. See for example, Dave Robert’s love-letter to David Victor’s realism, here. The truth, however, is rather more complex, and it includes the fact that the negotiations matter a great deal. They matter for the beginnings they’ve made, the progress they incrementally mark out, and, frankly, because they exist. If and when we ever get serious, they give us a place to build.

But we’re not going to get serious until we’re willing to talk about economic division.

Which brings us back to Occupy. Which has, in a few short months, managed to refocus the political battle on

economic inequality, and to illuminate this inequality as the (not so) secret substructure of modern life. As a substructure that, remarkably, we’d almost given up on noticing. By so doing, it has raised the possibility of a similar refocusing within the climate world, one that would be particularly welcome, and particularly challenging. Because when it comes to climate, inequality necessarily involves both the domestic and international, both the rich/poor and the North/South divides. When it comes to climate, neither side of our twice-divided world can be ignored, or reduced to the other.

Complicated? Yes, but one of the amazing things about Occupy is the way it has dissolved the image of complexity as an obstacle to clear thinking and sharp conclusion. The way it has stripped away the camouflage, and made the simplicity of economic division visible. We could use a similar magic within the climate war, where complexity is always the final excuse for paralysis.

History is racing ahead. Finance capital is out of control, and this is a challenge to us all. The denialist movement has come out as a division of the right-wing machine, and thus sealed its own doom. The renewables industry is growing by 30% a year, and thus offering us a rare straw that we had better grasp. The international economy is changing fast, and we can’t pretend to know exactly how. America is in crisis. In all this it’s easy to lose perspective, and to forget the inconvenient reality that, even in world of crisis, the environmental crisis must take pride of place, and that the climate crisis is it’s cutting edge, and that our efforts to “mitigate” this crisis have thus far come up very short indeed. That compared to the action that’s needed, we’re going nowhere.

Nor will we go anywhere without a breakthrough in the negotiations. The climate crisis, after all, is a commons problem. The commons problem from hell. Absent a well-functioning global regime, we can’t honestly hope for the global surge of transformative innovation and renewal that’s necessary to hold the risks within manageable levels. And we’ll not get a well-functioning regime unless it’s fair, and seen to be fair.

You may not like it, but there it is.

***

A friend of mine, an officer of a major climate foundation, recently sent out an email entitled “EU begging for help in China.” He pointed to an article in the Financial Times (it’s behind a paywall, but see this similar piece in the New York Times), and argued that the financial crisis is redefining North-South relations. And he opined that “this will have repercussions on the climate debate, for sure.”

He’s definitely right about this. And he might have added that the repercussions will be coming soon. Because when Durban rolls around, it’s going to be dominated by an exhausted but inevitable battle to save the Kyoto Protocol, which the US, backed by Canada, Russia, and Japan, seems intent on pushing off the rails. Which the Chinese, in turn, will play for all the international good will that they can muster. And which the journalists will spin and interpret for all they’re worth. Which might not be all that much. Because whatever happens in the negotiations, they’ll be seen against the background of the financial crisis, and thus we’re sure to be treated to a huge helping of snarky coverage of emerging-market mercantilists (think China) who refuse to pull their own weight.

If this was a story of figures and facts, I’d take this opportunity to explain yet again that China is doing much more than the US to abate its carbon emissions, and I’d cite chapter and verse. But China is not my topic, so let me simply point to this recent analysis of rich world and developing world emission-reduction pledges, which was written by SEI scientist Sivan Kartha (full disclosure: Sivan is a climate-equity geek and a colleague of mine). And, for brave souls who actually want to understand the big picture, let me add this link to Development without Carbon: Climate and the Global Economy through the 21st Century, a fabulous analysis that was just published by E3 Network economist Liz Stanton.

In any case, the immediate topic here is inequality and politics and, inevitably, ideology.

To see how difficult it can be to tell the difference between politics and ideology, click over to Foreign Affairs, which recently published Arvind Subramanian’s The Inevitable Superpower: Why China’s Dominance Is a Sure Thing. Here’s one of Subramanian’s blurbs:

“What if, contrary to common belief, China’s economic dominance is a present-day reality rather than a faraway possibility? What if the renminbi’s takeover of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency is not decades, but mere years, away? And what if the United States’ economic pre-eminence is not, as many economists and policymakers would like to believe, in its own hands, but China’s to determine?”

Well, what if? What would this mean for the climate negotiations? Would it, in particular, mean that the US has recently been right to insist – as it continues to do – that the whole idea of a world divided between wealthy developed and poor developing countries is obsolete?

Probably not. But it would sure mean something. It would mean, to exaggerate just a bit, that the world is “turning upside down” (as some of my wonkiest friends have taken to saying) and that any notion of rich-world “responsibility” – as in “common but differentiated responsibilities” – is altogether obsolete.

So, is the world really turning upside down?

I don’t think so.

***

I don’t deny the power of China’s emergence. But even if it does soon “eclipse” the US, in state-to-state power-political terms, this won’t be the whole story. Because – to get back to Occupy – the North is still the heartland of the rich. And even China’s great boom – which, by the way, has lifted an immense number of people out of poverty – has not changed this very much at all.

Cut to the Global Wealth Report that’s just been released by the gnomes at Credit Suisse. Start with Millionaires Control 39% of Global Wealth, a nice post by our friends at the Wall Street Journal that announced the report’s existence and a few of its conclusions. (To be precise, the report says that the world’s millionaires make up 0.5% of the world’s adult population and control 38.5% of the world’s wealth). It got my attention because these are global numbers, and because Credit Suisse’s researchers deal not in income, the usual recourse of development economists, but actual wealth. Capital and real estate and gold and such.

The report contains international wealth-per-adult numbers. Compare the US and Chinese numbers, for both 2000 and 2011, and you get this amazing takeaway – China’s wealth per adult has increased much more (from $6,000 to $21,000 a year) in percentage terms, but the US’s has increased much more (from $192,000 to $248,000) in absolute terms.

Think about that for a second. The recent increase in Chinese personal wealth has been amazing, but what’s even more interesting, from the point of view of the fair global cost-sharing problem that’s at the core of the climate impasse, is that wealth is increasing even faster in the US than it is in China. And that this is happening even as we are repeatedly told that the Chinese are eating our lunch.

Take a look at Figure 6:

Here’s a bit of discussion from the report, but first you need a few acronyms: HNW means “high net worth” and UHNW means “ultra high net worth.” USD means “United States Dollar.”

“Our figures for mid-2011 indicate that there were 29.6 million HNW with wealth from USD 1 million to USD 50 million, of whom the vast majority (26.7 million) fall in the USD 1-5 million range. North America used to host the greatest number of members, and still accounts for 11 million HNW individuals (37% of the total), but membership in the North American regions has been surpassed this year by residents of Europe (37.2% of the total). Asia-Pacific countries excluding China and India are home to 5.7 million members (19.2%), and we estimate that there are now just over 1 million HNW individuals in China (3.4% of the global total). The remaining 937,000 HNW individuals (3.2% of the total) reside in India,
Africa or Latin America.

Ultra high net worth

Our figures indicate a global total of 84,700 UHNW individuals with net assets exceeding USD 50 million. Of these, nearly 29,000 are world at least USD 100 million and 2,700 have assets above USD 500 million. North America dominate the regional ranking, with 37,500 UHNW residents (44%), while Europe hosts 23,700 individuals (28%) and 13,000 (15% reside in Asia-Pacific countries, excluding China and India.

In terms of single countries, the USA leads by a huge margin with 34,400 UHNW individuals, equivalent to 42% of the group. The recent fortunes created in China have propelled China into second place with 5,400 representatives.”

What’s the takeaway? Well, the report gives figures for the “Top 1%,” on a per-country basis. It turns out that 27.85% of them live in the US, and 3.54% of them live in China. Is that a lot of rich people in China? Well, yes, but not compared to the number in the US. And don’t forget that rich people in the US are richer than rich people in China, and getting richer still.

So how should we understand the claim that China is “eclipsing” the US? And what does this eclipse, if in fact it’s taking place, imply for the climate negotiations – in Durban, sure, but mostly beyond Durban, when the next major phase of the negotiation, the global phase, is going to eventually have to take place?

And given that so many of the rich – who ultimately should pay much of the cost of the climate transition, and indeed much of the cost of the future – still abide in the North, what does it say about fair, and unfair, divisions of the international burden? And about which nations should take on which obligations? And, critically, what does it mean that so much of the world’s wealth is ensconced in America, a land of wide and deepening poverty?

***

The last 30 years have seen a hollowing out of the US economy. We all know that this “deindustrialization” has had immense negative impacts on the American people, but we rarely consider that it may also have catastrophic global consequences.

The wealth stats indicate that America is still number one, at least as a place for the rich to hide out in. But how do all the rich Americans bear on the impasse in the climate negotiations? The standard explanation has them mattering very little. Subramanian, for example, focuses not on individual wealth, but instead on national GDP, national trade, and the extent to which a nation is “a net creditor to the rest of the world.” These, he argues, are the decisive factors when it comes to the constitution of national power, which from any broadly realist perspective is what international negotiations are all about. A simple way to say this is that, from the point of view of states, it’s trade and sovereign wealth that matter, and that they overbear the wealth and capacity of citizens (or residents).

But is this the whole story? I don’t think so. I think, rather, that inequality within countries is key to the politics of climate mobilization among countries. This is true for lots of reasons, one of the most important being that countries that do not protect their own citizens lose their political legitimacy, and thus their ability to act. Timmons Roberts, an activist academic and a close observer of the negotiations, even argues in Global Environmental Change that “the roots of the worst stubbornness by the US in recent climate talks lie in growing insecurity about its ability to provide jobs for its workers in a future where all sorts of work is moving to China and India.”

If this is true (and why wouldn’t it be?) it invites an extremely sharp interpretation. To wit, that the corporations, and the ideologues, and all the others that chose to deindustrialize America also chose (though they wouldn’t put it this way) to create a new United States that would be so “insecure” in the face of the climate threat that it refuses to lead, or to act, or even to allow others to act, save in the most timid and inadequate ways. By so doing they may have so poisoned the system of international governance that we will simply be unable to mobilize an effective response to the global climate threat.

Which really is an existential one.

The point here is that inequality and its related dysfunctions are critical obstacles to a successful climate transition. They are obstacles within countries, where the 1% are so coddled by their riches that they will not even notice the rising terrors of the warming world, while many of the 99% are so insecure, and so anxious, that they fear, or can be made to fear, even the policy reforms that they need to protect themselves and their families. And inequality is an internationally obstacle as well, for it greatly interferes with the goal of negotiating a regime that is both practical and fair. The UN’s notion of “common but differentiated responsibility and respective capability” tells the tale clearly enough, for as a principle of international law it was obviously intended to apply to nations. But what happens when some nations – like the US – are effectively captured, and crippled, by elites that disdain even the notion of international responsibility?

The problem here is “governance failure.” Or maybe we should just call it “decadence.” The United States may at this point be so weakened by rot and ideology that it is unable even to act in its own interests, let alone the interests of its people, let alone the interests of humanity as a whole. Sort of like Russia. Or Saudi Arabia. If this is the case, and to some extent it clearly is, then the challenge of national renewal, of “taking back America” is even greater, and more pressing, than we had previously believed.

– Tom Athanasiou


Image: Airplane Landing over Shanty Town (Mumbai) by Chris Hoare (CC BY 2.0)

Feature Page Image: untitled by other cities (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0)

Comments:

  1. This essay isn't all bad but like Planet 3.0 overall it lacks a clear direction, e.g.:

    "Not that there’s any hope without [some unspecified] technology revolution,...."

    Great Scott! It is not news that we have ample technology and that we do not acknowledge the full costs of carbon based energy. Why is it that only Romm has both feet on the ground with his "Deploy! Deploy! Deploy! Research & Develop! Deploy!?"

    Deployment would entail a large jobs program. There is ample money for that, but [relevance to Occupy Wall Street] money is not optimally distributed and government can't or won't take any major action that doesn't enhance existing cash flows.

    But [relevance to Planet 3.0] "That would also entail much economic growth. We are sure that infinite growth is impossible." Lacks relevance to the real world. A large dose of finite growth is plainly possible and needed.

    From climate physics http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2011/11/keystone-xl-game-over/ climate disruption is essentially proportional to total carbon burned. We had seriously better stop burning carbon long before we burn it all. Learn to say "Stop burning carbon. Leave it in the ground." Say the wake up words "leave it in the ground" and stop using the sleep inducing word "mitigation." "But people are used to energy on tap" you say. Yes and that takes us right back to Romm: "Deploy!"

    Get quite clear about denialism. It's easy if you try.

    a. It is not happening
    b. It is not our fault
    sub - abc: anything but CO2
    c. (for enhanced confusion) It will be good for us anyway

    Krugman notices denialism and its apparent contradictions. The consistency is in the objective:

    *** d. Delay ***

    Denialism is all about delaying a change in present cash flows. Denying sufficient reason to take deployment action now is the minimum essential denial. Whatever supports delay, clearly including "Wait for the breakthrough" is denying this. What of all the psychological or sociological notions about denial? Nay, what about the elephant (party) in the room, dedicated to exacerbating these mental or social tendencies in a certain direction? But what then of stubborn cognitive problems like Adults' mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter, Why Don't Well-Educated Adults Understand Accumulation? and so forth? Skip all that. Just mention accumulation directly. "Total CO2 emissions must be kept below X or we suffer Y." The go on to how long it takes to deploy better energy infrastructure, "so we had best start now." So why don't we, really? Politics in support of present cash flows, which takes us back to Romm. There is another cognitive defect that supports delay: special fantasies. Cigarets taste good, climatologists are evil and so on. Some people's heads are stuffed with an entire alternate reality. Skip them too. Grow the reality based community until Occupy or the like wins. This is our real bottom line.

    You want jobs? Hire people.
    You want non-carbon energy? Deploy it.
    You want both? Voila!

    • Regarding your points, I think on the whole they are excellent and worthy of note. If you have the time to expand them into an essay, it would be a welcome contribution.

      Regarding this in particular:

      But [relevance to Planet 3.0] “That would also entail much economic growth. We are sure that infinite growth is impossible.” Lacks relevance to the real world. A large dose of finite growth is plainly possible and needed.

      it seems a straw man insofar as Tom's position is concerned. I saw nothing in his piece about limits to growth.

      That said, I have some quibbles about it myself. My head is so backlogged at this point with things I want to write that I'm reluctant to promise a detailed response. In short, yes we need to deploy regardless of what that does to the rest of the economy, but disguising it as a jobs program or even treating the resulting jobs as a benefit is, in my opinion, pandering to our underlying problem.

      As for the article, I know of the EcoEquity gang through my good friend Paul Baer. Paul and I communicate well about these matters because he spent some time in Steve Schneider's orbit, and like most committed folks I have spent many hours poring over Climatic Change. But Paul overlaps with a world of which I know little.

      People like Tom Athanasiou think very differently about these issues than those of us in the physical climatology stream do. While I am socialized (so to speak) enough to find the leftist ramifications of what he says terrifying, it all seems cogent and thoughtful beyond that point.

      And so it belongs in the mix here, the two filters being a) makes sense and b) is relevant to issues of global sustainability and/or the post-sustainability world.

      By the way, we're desperately looking for some right-wing analysis that fulfills the criteria, whether with republication permission or not.

      Tellingly, perhaps, so far we find none. It appears that the right wing is so attached to the status quo that it will ride it happily off a cliff rather than even tinker with it.

      But I do wish it were otherwise, because I do share some of the fears of the right about totalitarianism under the guise of universal brotherhood. From Robespierre to Pol Pot, history is replete with examples of well intentioned social revolution leading to disaster and even genocide.

      So maybe what P3 is or isn't hasn't become clear, but I find the boundaries clear-cut. It may be less clear to the reader because:

      a) the editors' time and attention are severely constrained, so the samples we find are not broadly distributed over the space of interest

      and b) because politics is cheaper than science and so good scientific surveys at the right intellectual level for an intelligent but broad audience are hard to come by (the more so because established media and the social sciences have been discouraging exactly such articles).

    • "Regarding this in particular:

      [The unlimited growth bit]

      it seems a straw man insofar as Tom’s position is concerned."

      Got me dead to rights. I meant that in regard to what I take to be a fairly common view here at Planet 3.0, not in regard to the essay at all. I should have clear about that.

      I do disagree with you in that I am all for a jobs program. I don't rule out the need for system change but I am not looking for the change you may have in mind. Not yet anyway.

      "But I do wish it were otherwise, because I do share some of the fears of the right about totalitarianism under the guise of universal brotherhood."

      I see a growing democracy deficit but brotherhood does not appear on my list of causes.

      "Political Deficits - The Democracy Deficit"

      "Democracy is not just a good idea in and of itself, it is also generally conducive to positive policy options. Anti-democratic forces tend to advance the narrow self-interests of those they represent. If the un-represented suffer as a result, there is nothing surprising about it. Of course, democracy per se is no guarantee of good outcomes, but it does significantly improve the odds of such outcomes, particularly when it is paired with protections of individuals and minority groups by a framework of rights, in the form known as liberal democracy. The more that a wide range of people's views and interests are openly considered, the more likely their best interests will be served. Thus, any deficit or deficiency in realising broadly democratic self-government is likely to cause harm, or at least fall short of the optimal good that might otherwise be achieved. Deficits in democracy produce needless deficits in all other realms as well, as surely as night follows day.

      "America's democracy deficit can be seen in a number of ways...."

      Returning to Tom's essay:
      "Timmons Roberts, an activist academic and a close observer of the negotiations, even argues in Global Environmental Change that “the roots of the worst stubbornness by the US in recent climate talks lie in growing insecurity about its ability to provide jobs for its workers in a future where all sorts of work is moving to China and India.”"

      This seems to me to underrate simpler factors like the influence of money in politics. Nevertheless the essay moves along to "The problem here is “governance failure.”" Clearly. But the overall near-hopeless tone borders on the Rhetoric of Rejection while giving little credence to humanity. Like many people I had noted the governance shortfall. Like perhaps not so many I've discounted it and mentally moved on. Governance or not it is imperative to leave much of the remaining carbon in the ground. Thus I seek to get this point across to enough people to make it stick. I think we can agree and work together on that.

    • "... disguising it as a jobs program or even treating the resulting jobs as a benefit is, in my opinion, pandering to our underlying problem."

      Baldly put, yes. But my feeling is that we need to start somewhere and this is the perfect start. Not just to deploying appropriate technology, but to move on to economies based on managing or improving, rather than exploiting or destroying, the resources we've been given.

      An economical philosophy based on being economical and elegant in engineering terms, rather than profligate and clumsily bragging about huuuge quantities of concrete or steel or explosives used in projects, would be a vast improvement. And the first step along that path is to prefer power sources that require the least possible of 19th century type thinking. Sun, wind, water and tides. Distributed rather than centralised.

      When people generally, and their representative governments in particular, look for activities and their associated employment and lifestyle implications that emphasise continuity and maintenance of resources rather than exploitation and moving on to the next in line for destruction or despoiling, we'll be much better off.

  2. Pete Dunkelberg:

    As Einstein once sort of said, 'everything should be as simple as possible, but no simpler'.

    Within a country, where you have people in power and people not in power, the way is clear: those in power should implement policies to benefit the 99%.

    When one gets to international treaties though, things are hairier: instead of "those in power" and "those not in power", you have lots of powerful people who represent (or 'represent') those not in power, and you still wish to somehow come up with something that will ... benefit the 99%. Needless to say, this arrangement means that a catchy message like "WE ARE THE 99%" doesn't immediately help show a way forward in multilateral negotiations.

    -- frank

  3. Separated from Diamond and "Collapse", this debate seems to follow a typical pattern of some folks who did some research and came up with a result that seems outlandish to some. Outlandish results inevitably get some scorn, and maybe they should, but outlandish is not necessarily wrong.

    Some of you may be inclined to read these books to come to your own educated opinion. I am inclined to sit back and let the archeologists hack it out and over time I expect that they will figure it out (if they haven't already).

    By focusing some criticism on Diamond and Collapse, Lipo and Hunt took the issue out of academia, but also brought more attention to it.


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