Comment at Watts

In case this doesn’t pass moderation there:

This article conflates the uncertainty in the projected mean warming with the interannual variability. The correct figure to compare the actual trajectory to is this one:

http://www.realclimate.org/images/runs.jpg

from

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/05/what-the-ipcc-models-really-say/

It is certainly not at all *excluded* from the data that the warming is turning out to be slower than expected. My own suggestion is that faster than expected ice melt might be implicated. That seems *far* more likely than that the greenhouse perturbation is having a small effect. Regardless, it is too soon to refute the current generation of GCMs from the trajectory to date, and the figures Scafetta uses are in that regard quite misleading.

Comments:

  1. Published. Here's a follow-up; you'll need to plow through the comments at Watts' for context.

    ===

    Gee, the thing I said in good faith which you're calling a "fabrication" was POSTED BY Anthony Watts but written by somebody else (Tom Nelson). And rather than calling on people to review Mann's book whether they had read it or not (as many obviously did), Watts explcitly asked them to read it first. Below the fold, i.e., hidden from view.

    I hate to be substantively incorrect and am open to corrections, but the complaints I made were not without foundation. So I am amazed that Mr. Watts continues to pursue them

    As for the "F-word fusillade" against Mosher for trying to be my "friend" without changing his position on the stolen emails, I stand by it. Mosher and I have much in common, but we can't be friends as long as he is an enemy of the scientific community.

    Everybody in the community is so trained to be calm and academic, that the response to the stolen emails and the grotesque interpretations of them. In short, the Dukakis error. Somebody needs to stand up and make very clear how very p***ed off the community is about that. Somebody needs to state how this all makes them feel.

    I think it needed saying and doing. At least you all took notice, and I consider that any hits I take for it are well worth it.


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