Never Rains but it Pours


Heavy rains for central and east Texas predicted for the next few days.

Further rains are anticipated next week. We haven’t seen the sun for a week and don’t expect it back for another, but that’s okay,we still don’t miss it yet.

Northeast Texas has been out of moisture deficit for some time and this pattern, if it persists, may ironically drive Dallas and points further up I-30 into Arkansas into flood territory, even while West Texas and far southern Texas and northern Mexico remain parched.

As for Austin, except for raining out South by Southwest, this is just perfect, and will make for a glorious spring. Presuming it stops eventually.

The consensus around Texas was that the drought was “because of the La Nina”, and that since La Nina conditions persist. the drought would persist as well. I told people I wasn’t sure about that, the El Nino/La Nina phase having only very modest predictive value. My uncertainty did not sound like expertise to people who had heard much more certain predictions of doom this year.

But I was right about our ignorance and most everybody else was wrong. I am doubly happy to have this demonstrated, being not just relieved of the stress of everything dying all around me, but also in having my ignorance prove more correct that most people’s morose overconfidence.

Sometimes expertise means not knowing and knowing that you don’t know.



  1. I'm glad it's raining but there's probably hardpan and little vegetation to intercept the downpour.

    I have analysed the Texas drought from a real southerner's point of view (Australia) and was struck by how some of the largest droughts coincided with wet La Ninas in Australia. But by no means all, so there is a secondary coupling going on I would think. (For example, northern Victorian floods are a combination of La Nina and negative Indian Ocean Dipole).

    The heat, though appears to be mainly climate change - an analysis assessing the conditional likelihood of the anomalies in Tmax and Tmin according to natural climate variability or change is here:

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