Record Temperatures

It’s interesting to see record warmth in Europe as well.

According, to Jeff Masters, if forecasts hold, the late-winter heat wave in North America will be without any observed precedent.

Comments:

  1. Pingback: What I’m Reading, Friday, March 16, 2012 | Rationally Thinking Out Loud

  2. Pingback: Is Jeff Masters Blind In One Eye? | Real Science

  3. I tried posting on that site once before, but it apparently does not post contrary argument. Here is the brief reply I left there:

    Masters is well aware of the global pattern: he is a leading operational meteorologist ("weather man").

    There is an emerging pattern of extraordinary large meridional excursions in the jet stream; this is what we are talking about. These will be accompanied by record cold and record warm. Superimposed on the continuous background warming, the hot records will exceed the cold records. Meanwhile, the likelihood of "normal" seasons at any location goes down. The extreme nature of these events over the past decade or so requires some explanation. There is no sign of a historical precedent.

  4. Coincidentally (or not) there's this:

    Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes (Francis and Vavrus)

    http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl1206/2012GL051000/

    h/t somebody at RC, it happened to be in an open window of mine

  5. posting this:

    Those are pretty extreme months, yes. And your having a bunch of old copies of MWR around is interesting.

    Your Montana bullseye is certainly amazing. Probably a couple of Arctic outbreaks following the same trajectory. Happy to have missed that. It must have been terrible to be in Montana or Alberta that year.

    but...

    Accuweather: "The warmth's persistence and magnitude is what makes it unprecedented. ... Chicago, Ill., broke daily record highs each day of the weekend and Sunday marked the fifth consecutive day of 80-degree warmth in the city. Never before has Chicago experienced so many 80-degree March days. In fact, the previous earliest stretch of five 80-degree days in Chicago was April 23-27, 1915."

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/historic-st-patricks-day-weeke/62975

    The question is not whether there have been anomalous months before. The question is, was there ever a precedent for *this* sort of thing, weeks of above dramatically above normal temperatures associated with a persistent ridge.

    Based on the way the temperature records are looking in the midwest, "no" appears to be a reasonable conclusion for the US. It *is* reminiscent of the disastrous pattern over Russia summer before last, and that over Australia the southern summer prior to that iirc.

    I don't know that we've seen anything like it in spring anywhere ever. It would be a service if you could find a counterexample, but these don't really work.


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