Roger Harrabin asks: Is ‘peak oil’ idea dead?
So here’s another worry – not that we have too little oil and gas, for the time being at least. But that we have too much if we want to enjoy a stable climate.
Another author who has no clue what he’s talking about. Yes, oil has peaked. ‘Peak oil’ and ‘oil depletion’ are two compeltely separate entities. Peak oil doesn’t mean that oil is “running out”. No peak oil theorist claims oil is running out, in fact quite the opposite.. peak oil theorists claim oil will NEVER run out.
Why? Because oil takes energy to get. This is called EROEI – energy returned on energy invested. People are pointing to oilsands and shale as evidence against peak oil when in fact it is the energy input to energy output of these new “reserves” which confirms peak oil.
The oilsands have a piddly 3:1 EROEI ratio, compared to conventional oil which was around 200:1. That means that for every 3 barrels of oil coming out of the oilsands, it took 1 barrel of oil equivilent energy to get those 3 barrels. Peak oil theorists claim oil will never run out because for us to run out of oil we would eventually need to extract oil at a negative ratio. Eventually it will require 1 barrel of oil to get 1 barrel of oil – at this point oil extraction will cease, not because there isn’t oil but because there is no economic incentive to get it. Peak oil is not oil depletion, and by the way.. stones didn’t fly airplanes or operate an industrial economy of which 7 billion people rely on. Apples and oranges bud.
I should add, that the fears surrounding peak oil do not come directly from the resource, but rather from the exponential growth economy and it’s demands.
Chris Martenson explains this topic very well: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chris-martenson-lecture-why-next-20-years-will-be-marked-collapse-exponential-function
Its not about running out, its not about shortages (yet) – and when they do come they will be due to the unstable infinite growth economy failing. At a 3:1 ratio, we’ll never be able to raise economic growth to the points needed to paydown the 700 trillion dollar derivatives bubble. PEak oil is happening now, economies around the world can’t grow, and when they do the price of oil jumps up, gas price is on every frontpage (remember a month ago), and then shortly afterward another economic slump will begin. Just as it has now.