Uncertainty-Not-Your-Friend Meets Greg Craven

Newell and Smithson have published perhaps the most elegantly accessible and bulletproof expression of Greg Craven’s argument via decision matrix regarding climate risk asymmetry. Relates to arguments by Lewandowsky and by myself.


  1. But Craven's entertaining piece is simply Pascal's wager, an 4-way argument one can apply to advocate for anything at all. You don't want to be using the same argument to prove We Need Action as the one used to prove the existence of God. There are enough accusations of belief in AGW-as-religion as it is.

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