The Current El Nino Picture

via Kevin Trenberth


It’s early days and it may not pan out, but we’re still on track for a Super-ENSO.

The image (Slide 43 in this briefing) shows the evolution of the equatorial temperature anomaly through time in the two super-El-Ninos in the observational record, and the evolution to date of the current likely El Nino.

UPDATE: Peter Sinclair has more



  1. Interesting, but for a layperson such as myself, it would be helpful to include charts for moderate and minor ENSO events so that I could see the contrast. Admittedly, it might not mean a lot to me but then, it might.

  2. Good Q

    I had trouble finding directly comparable examples, but there's one in the left panel of figure 1 here. See also accompanying text on pages 92-93.

    I have passed your inquiry on to Dr Trenberth.

    I have the chops to draw the pictures but not the data or the (eww, Fortran) software handy.

  3. Thanks for the NCEP/NOAA June 6 report, that's handy.

    Another interesting resource here:,730.1050.html

    (not sure if one has to sign up to see the graphics, and it is necessary to go to the final page (22 currently) to see the most recent comments on this long-tunning topic)

  4. Pingback: El Nino Gives Mixed Signals | Climate Denial Crock of the Week

  5. Pingback: Another Week in the Ecological Crisis, June 22, 2014 – A Few Things Ill Considered

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