Improvements in characterizing global interannual variation and trend in global heat flux.
Yes there probably is an upward trend. There is substantial uncertainty in the vertical axis offset, though it probably is warming.
And yes, El Nino years are cooling years. Does this surprise you?
Allan, R. P., C. Liu, N. G. Loeb, M. D. Palmer, M. Roberts, D. Smith, and P.-L. Vidale (2014), Changes in global net radiative imbalance 1985–2012, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41
DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060962
If heat is coming out of the ocean in el Niño years, doesn't it seem obvious that part of that heat coming out will transmit back to space, lowering the radiative imbalance?
Yep. Apparently it doesn't confuse anybody willing to admit it here.
I'll bite. I find (found) it confusing but logical. I have to think it through over and over, because I've never internalized it. But the logical connections are there to be teased out if one suspends prejudgment.
So the clearest way to ask the question here is why cool volcanos and warm El Ninos both glitch in the same direction. I wonder how many Watts readers could answer it.