At Newsweek: Why the Lima Agreement Is a Failure
With the Lima agreement, “we are on track to [be] between 3 to 3.5 degrees [by 2100] so far,” says Massimo Tavoni, deputy director of the climate change unit at Italian research body Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, one of the institutions involved in the report. Three degrees warming, he says, is achievable in the “most optimistic case” assessed by the report, in which the researchers assume that the Lima agreements are augmented by a more ambitious agreement in the near future.
That would require other major emitters, like Indonesia and other countries in Southeast Asia, to adopt emission-cutting plans comparable to the ones adopted by the U.S., the European Union and China. In a more pessimistic scenario, where future agreements are less ambitious, we could see 3.5 to 4 degrees of warming. And if we do nothing beyond implementing the agreements in the Lima talks, Tavoni says, we’re looking at warming of between 4 and 5 degrees.
“Four or 5 degrees would be a disaster,” Tavoni says. “We need to get on the right track to get at least to 3 degrees. I’m not very optimistic that what we see now will do that. I’m not sure. [But] I’m hopeful that if we step forward, we can.”